take a position on statistics by the news media macroeconomic data
what influences forex:interest rates set by central banksinterest rate and growth: decreased rate less money stimulates growth
high book better remunerated capital inflowsGDP quarterly publicationpublished monthly rate
What are the factors impacting the forex?
meetings of central banksunemployment rateimport export: trade balancemanufactured evidence
safe haven currency USD, JPY, CHFcurrency risk for enjoying EUR, AUD, NZD, GBPadvantage of real-time statistics: strategy of "vulture" very risky strategyenjoy statistics to identify significant levels: recommended
in the case of a statistical publication and that you are in position: strategy can HEDGING: cover positiontake an opposite position to the current positionOnce the direction of the market known to abandon the position opposite trend
fundamental analysis EURUSD
growth perspective: if USA have better growth prospects than europe EUR / USD declinesinflation: if inflation in the euro area is superior to inflation devaluation USA, EURUSD declinesmonetary policy interest rates of central banks: if rates are superior in the usa USA that Europe EURUSD declineslong rate, if long-term rates in Europe are superior to those of the USA EURUSD declinesbalance of trade if imports of American products is superior to imports of products european EURUSD declines
trend line is a support and a movable resistance oblique or1support and resistance1.1 Identify the peaks and troughs of Dow theory if the highest and lowest are rising uptrend
1.2 uptrend line connecting the hollow cavity lined upward1.2.1achat to approach the line1.2.2 sale if broken
03.01 bearish trend line connects the dots aligned peaks to lower1.3.1vente the approach line1.3.2 purchase if brokenwait up as follows: the pullback and enter the ordertrading place orders to buy or sell on line
2 channelshorizontal channels: channel consolidationascending channel: uptrend channelchannels down: downward channel
tradingto approach the lower limit: purchaseapproaching the upper limit: sale
Three triangles are continuation patternspredominantly rise to the output of the triangle if the bull entered the trianglesymmetrical triangleascending triangle breaks up the uptrenddescending triangle broken down by the bearish trend
tradingcontinuation pattern pause in the trend of the output of pending triangle to position
4 reversalis to identify a trend reversal rule of the highest and lowest:above is lower growing DIMINISHING become bearish trend to uptrend
Figures turning
shoulder head shoulder
shoulder head shoulder reversed
CCI comodity channel indicator used to indicate that a trend starts detector trend period 5principle when going from - 100 to + 100 buy signal
when going from 100 to - 100 sell signalsignals buyer downtop seller signalsworks in reverse rsilook for differences is to identify differences between the orientation of the indicator and prices.for example there were two high points on prices and DIMINISHING two points on the indicator: bearish divergence. this divergence bearish bearish trend announces future courses.
stochasticInformation signal when the red curve falls below the blue curve: Information signalfind the middle between terminalscrossing is a short-term movementthe buy signal is in the oversold zoneInformation signal is in the overbought arearely on two indicators Stochastic and CCIfind the signal and bearish stochastic divergence of bearish indicator: Announcement lower future prices.bearish divergence indicator and the two high points of course announce lower prices and vice versa., a bullish divergence points below the indicator warns the upward phase.
standard deviationshows the volume of the marketdevaluationin the c ase of a devaluation, a currency is depreciating its value to promote exports. eg EUR / JPY if the yen depreciated its value decreases and the value of the euro therefore increases EUR / JPY rises.devaluation of the yen is made to promote the export of Japanese products.
Indicator Heiken ASHIpurchase when we see two candles of the same color growing:One small candle followed by a larger candle purchase prices rise2 waiting for a different color candle to close the position
R.S.Ipurchase = RSI oversold zone (below 30)+candle below the average low Bolinger+candle on a bracket
sale = RSI overbought area (above 70)+candle above the average high of Bolinger+candle on a resistance
indicators:
differencesa difference is a difference in behavior of the indicator and price behavior.example case of RSI: RSI and the price is correle.prendre repere points, peaks and troughs between price and the indicator, see differenceseg there simultannément growing number above the graph above and several descendent of indicators, we are in the presence of a bullish divergence. This bullish divergence indicates an increase in future courses.a divergence between price and indicator is used to predict when will declare rebounds.for bearish divergence: take an interest in the peaks, peakfor bullish divergences take an interest in the hollow, low pointbearish divergence: buyers are signals in the upper part of the indicatorbullish divergence: signals sellers in the lower part of the indicator.follow each higher ROI watch price matching.
bullish divergence: rise in future
rule
1 draw a line in the middle of the indicator
above search bearish signals
below search bullish signals
Draw a bearish divergence two peaks with
draw a bullish divergence with hollow
entry point
entry point to buy three indicators
1 candle on a support
RSI 2 to 30 or below
3 candle below the average low bollinger
entry point for sale 3 indicators
One candle on a resistance
2 rsi 70 or above
3 candle above the average high bollinger
purchase of entree
trend studyrepere a trend and make entries according to the trend and use the indicators to take a stand.differencesBearish divergences research on the peakssearch bullish divergences on hollow
above the middle of the bearish divergence indicator researchbelow the middle of the indicator research bullish divergences
trading1 define the trend2 is positioned according to the trend3 manage the output of the position
type of orderbuy limit: purchase below the currentbuy stop: purchase above the currentsell limit: sales above the currentsell stop: selling below the current
buy purchase limit on the support 1 with a take profit on the strength 1
QE leads to a repurchase obligations issuance of dollar decline in the value of the dollar bearish factor for the dollar (USD)rate cut bearish factor for the eurofind differences which respond to valid filters.avoid use of indicators when you have a flat Evolution.
Technical trading on ads. M5 M15stay out during the first bar after the publication of the report. the bar will be high resulting amplitude movement engendered by speculators. expect that a bar "inside" appears.important when a bar closes above or below the bar "inside", it is advisable to place an order in this direction. placing more than 2 orders. if both are stopped by the stop loss, no open pas.en in general the maximum amplitude of the course reaches during the first 4 hours after the announcement.Keep in mind anticipating the market's reaction can lead to significant losses. It should be noted how the market reacts rather than anticipate / trying to guess what direction to take the course.Wait until the first movement ends only after you can enter the market, having missed the movement induced by speculators.At this point you can enter the market more "thought" that more accurately reflected the consequences of the result of the announcement.Look at this graph: M15 - M5 same rules:1. Stay out in the first bar after the publication of the report (14:30 - 14: 45 in this case).2. Bar 14 :30-14: 45 will be of great amplitude - reflecting the movement engendered by speculators. Wait a bar "Inside" appears (not necessarily bar nearby).3. Important when a bar closes above or below the bar "Inside", it is advisable to place an order in this direction.4. Places up to 2 orders. If the two are "adopted" by the stop / los, do not open more.5. In general, the maximum amplitude of the course. reached during the first 4 hours after the announcement
Market AnalysisOne study trend4 possibilitiesbullishbearish
neutralreversal (in the case of summer): shoulder head shoulder
2 analyzes trading signalsstudy of divergence
A spread rate is a rate differential actuarial found on the market, between the rate of a bond and the rate of a government bond equivalent safely. It is used to compare the relative values of different rate instruments.By convention, a yield to maturity is the rate of investment or investment for a period of one year for which the interest is received or paid after one year. Thus a CAGR of 10% becomes a $ 100 a $ 110 after 365 days
fundamental usa / europeusa debt 150 160% of GDPeuro zone debt 95% of GDPtrade balance usa 100 billion DEFICIT1 trillion budget deficitquantitative easing printing money to buy American debt, monetization of debtplan assistance by EFSF europe or MES Draghirepurchase obligation in the secondary market + market EFSFrecession in 2013 in the USA: fiscacliff
The subprime crisis broke out in the second half of 2006 with the crash of loans (mortgages) at risk in the U.S. (subprime) that borrowers often modest, were no longer able to repayThe banking and financial crisis in the fall of 2008 is the second phase of the financial crisis of 2007-2010, after the subprime crisis in the summer of 2007. [1] This second phase [2], marked by an increase in the liquidity crisis and the crisis of confidence and an additional credit inflation by increasing the interbank rate, affecting all countries of the world. It quickly spread to the stock market by falling prices (some speak of the "crash of autumn 2008" [3]), while the credit crunch for companies and households weigh on economic activity World. wikipedia
1 currency management: how to use the stop loss and take profit: capital management2 financial information: important announcement varied courses fluctuations wait until the motion correction, search the candle inside
30/08/2012usa Q.E3 quantitative easing: creation monetary, liquidity injection, printing money, the money supply process is increased from usa to buy American debt, monetization of debt. therefore decrease the value of the dollar (increase of eur / usd), loss of the dollar to the Chinese The Chinese China dollars.La 2000 billion will broaden its investments euro. purchase obligation of states to boost EU economy the European and usa to sell its products in europe and usa.
Europe The President of the ECB decided it was the "responsibility" of the monetary institute to intervene in the debt market and buy sovereign bonds maturing in less than three years was not the creation monetary
The convergence criteria stipulate an area not to exceed:1.Stabilité prices: inflation of a Member State must not exceed by more than 1.5 percentage points that of the three Member States with the best results in terms of price stability2.Situation public finances:1.déficit public (state + social security) less than 3% annual GDP [N 1]2.Dette public (all borrowings by the State and the general government, including social security) less than 60% of GDP [N 1]3.Taux exchange: Devaluation excluded (obsolete measure for the countries of the euro area).4.Taux interest long term should not exceed more than 2% of those three Member States with the best results in terms of price stability.
situation in Europe, increased public debt and public deficit increased growth slowdown, recession, the public deficit to 4.5% of passes the GDP convergence criteria announced that the public deficit should not exceed 3% of GDP. policy of reducing interest charges, rates of interest debt, public deficit decreased by increasing taxes. two years restabilization ratio of public deficit / GDP.the long-term rate of spain and greece out of the fourth criterion therefore purchase obligation by refinancing the shorter term to reduce long-term risk.
forexfactorygood results: greenbad results: redif the results are good then bad for EUR USDif the results are good then bad for EUR USD
inflation rate best rate 2% Germany Franceworse rate 3% Spain ItalyFrance has debt exceed 80% of GDP.public deficit 4.5% of GDP.forecasting weak growth in the euro area 1% Germany 0.9%
long rates international market debtgreece 20% that the Troika told them to call the EFSF borrowSpain 5.8%Italy 5%France 2%Germany 1.4%Finland 1.4%Austria 1.4%(See chart rate to ten years)
European stability mechanism MES, recapitalization of the banking sector of 53 billion euros Spain
fiscalcliffN 98% of Americans have no tax increase ofreturned in Februarydebt ceiling reached on December 312 months of respite for the amount of budget cutsthe level of indebtedness will continue, but growth will be better.2 months to find a budget agreement strengthens the dollar and the dollar index risesdebt continued to USAif there is no borrowing of there is less investment less consumption means less growth
strategy of the ECB: sale of short-term obligation to redeem in long-term bondsConsequently lower rates.if there is a decline in interest rates in Europe there is a decline in the euro.ECB's website
rule of postponing ranks
changec reserve of reserve currency is the foreign currency held by central banks.when a company buys it abroad to request his bank foreign currency that requires the central bank. ECB holds reserves of foreign currency: exchange reserve.
The Fed rate to 0%. not before the end of 2015 to raise the rate in the USA. C is a very low rate of pay little attraction for little capital investment dollar.
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